NFL Betting Lines
Thursday Night Football Preview, Bears vs. Dolphins
2010-11-18
Sportsbook.com Bears vs. Dolphins Lines: Miami -1, Total: 40
The 6-3 Bears head to Miami tonight as one-point underdogs to take on the 5-4 Dolphins. Due to injuries to Chad Pennington (shoulder) and Chad Henne (knee), Tyler Thigpen will start under center for the Fins.
Thigpen might not get the protection he requires because two key offensive linemen might not play. LT Jake Long is questionable with a torn labrum in his shoulder and C Joe Berger’s status is uncertain due to a knee injury. This could allow the Bears to actually tally some sacks for a change. Only Tampa Bay and Cincinnati have fewer than Chicago’s 13 sacks this year.
But despite the non-existent pass rush, the Bears defense has been formidable this year. They lead the league in turnovers forced (24) and rank second in both scoring defense (16.2 PPG) and rushing defense (82 YPG). On the offensive side of the ball, Chicago has not been efficient, ranking 23rd in rushing (95 YPG) and 21st in passing offense (202 YPG). QB Jay Cutler has six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his past five games, while RB Matt Forte has a dismal 170 combined rushing yards and a 3.2 YPC average in his past four games.
Thigpen played very well after Miami’s top two quarterbacks left last week’s 29-17 win over Tennessee. He went 4-for-6 for 64 yards and a touchdown to cap off an 85-yard drive that sealed the win for the Dolphins. For his four-year career, Thigpen has played 19 games and completed 54.3% of his passes for 2,811 yards, 20 TD and 16 INT. Most of his experience came in 2008 with Kansas City when Thigpen played 14 games and threw for 2,608 yards, 18 TD and 12 INT. Thigpen will look to get Brandon Marshall more involved in the passing game. Marshall has been bothered recently with a hamstring injury, but he only has one touchdown in nine games this season. Over the past four weeks, Marshall has a paltry 18 receptions for 185 yards (10.3 average).
These teams have only played twice since 2000, with Miami winning both games easily, 27-9 in 2002 and 31-13 in 2006. Additionally, this NFL betting trend indicates that point spread bettors might find better value on the home team.
Play Against - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Given the aforementioned stats and betting trends, it is a bit surprising that 60 percent of the Bears vs. Dolphins point spread money is on Chicago.
For those looking to make a play on the ‘total’, take the following football betting trend into consideration before placing your wager:
MIAMI is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MIAMI 25.4, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 3*).
To check out all of the Bears vs. Dolphins betting odds and to take a look at the NFL Week 11 point spreads, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV2010-08-24Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.
After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.
In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.
The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).
In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.
The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.
A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.
The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.
NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)2010-01-29The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.
This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.
The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.
The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.
In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.
The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.
The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.
Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.
The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.
Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.
The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.
Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.
NFL: NFL Quarterback controversy’s leave bettors guessing2009-07-21Competition is healthy right? When someone has to compete, they tend to extend more effort and become better at what they do. But what happens when say two mediocre people go head to head? Does it really benefit a company or organization having to pick the best of an average pairing? And what about the sports bettor, he’s left to analyze the merits of mediocrity. In the NFL, this happens a lot. The most telling position is under center with the quarterback. In studying the list of 32 NFL teams, it is good business to find the quarterback situations that are up for grabs and give strong consideration to playing Under on futures wagers for team totals. Find the latest futures prices for the 2009 NFL season on the LIVE ODDS page.
Why you ask, it allows the old professional football proverb – If you have more than one quarterback, you have none.
The Oakland Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell No.1 two years ago and to call his progress S L O W would be doing injustice to the word itself. Talent-wise the former LSU quarterback can make all the throws, however work habits, dedication, decision-making and staying in shape were all questions marks when he was drafted and remain today. The Oakland camp is so unsure if he is the right person for the job, they’ve brought in 39-year old Jeff Garcia.
Reports have the Raiders organization thinking Russell can learn from Garcia’s work ethic and understand what it takes to play in this league. One problem, Garcia is a curmudgeon, he has no interest in developing Russell, he wants to be the starting quarterback. If Garcia believes he has earned the job in camp (which he always does) and if coach Tom Cable (with Al Davis calling every 10 seconds) decides Russell is his guy to start the season, Garcia’s past suggests a malcontent who isn’t afraid to speak his mind. This sets up combustible situation for a franchise who makes the Kardashian’s seem normal. Sportsbook.com has Da Raaaiders at 5.5 for season wins, but if Russell fails or Garcia starts seeing the ghosts of linemen chasing him like last season, they will fall short of that total in 2009.
New Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris was a big fan Josh Freeman at Kansas State and picked him in first round as long term quarterback solution. While most experts considered Freeman a project, he quickly moved up in the eyes of those in the Buccaneers organization with sharp workouts in mini-camps and OTA’s. Freeman was helped significantly competing with Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich.
Morris can’t be milquetoast in making a decision. His options are more limited than he believes and nobody thinks Freeman is as prepared as Matt Ryan for quarterback duty to start the season. The smart thing to do is start McCown and let Freeman learn and make change at midseason if necessary, with veteran Leftwich in the bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bucs for 6.5 wins after two nine win campaigns, which makes good sense.
Sweeping changes were made in Cleveland, nevertheless, sports talk radio and Browns blogs are still in debate who should be starting quarterback, Derrick Anderson or Brady Quinn. New head man Eric Mangini’s first true decision as coach will be picking one of the two. No matter who he chooses, a large bucketful of support will be for the player that lost, especially if the winner fails to live up to expectations.
The real issue here is ability. Quinn is local guy, but does not possess strong arm and accuracy isn’t his strong point. He can pick up first downs with his legs and likes to throw to tight end in tough spots. His true value is incomplete due to lack of playing and injury. Anderson is neither as good as he played in 2007 nor as awful as he looked last season. He’s like a hot fudge sundae, hot and cold, and definitely turnover-prone. Mangini needs to take a stand with one and live with it, especially in first season as coach and worry about the future later. Bettors have to do the same with Browns listed at 6.5 wins for 2009.
Of course the craziest quarterback controversy isn’t even one and might not ever be one, yet has the juiciest story. Brett Favre will be a Minnesota Viking if his arm is sound and Sage Rosenfels will wonder how he was blindsided. Even more so than Garcia, Favre isn’t putting on a purple and white uniform to wear a headset. He signs; he expects to start, even if he plays the “I just want a chance to compete” card. Except for 2007, Favre has seen a noticeable deterioration in his skill to throw the medium-deep pass (unless it’s a slant) or long pass over the last four years.
Rosenfels sagged as starter for Houston last season, being too much a risk-taker when not needed. Tarvais Jackson has had his chances and fumbled his opportunities to take the Vikings-mantle by the horns and will have to move on to have real shot at starting again. Though Minnesota fans are mildly excited about Favre coming after seeing him beat their team all these years, be careful for what you wish with a quarterback who turns 40 in October. Minnesota total of nine wins could go south if No. 4 fails to impress.
Several other teams don’t have specific issues at the field general position; however they do not have answers necessarily.
Is Trent Edwards really what Buffalo needs at quarterback? He played the role of Indian-giver in 2008. He made the coaches very comfortable in the first half of the season making him the starter and gave it all back with a repulsive second half. Terrell Owens can help, if Edwards can hit the target. Are the Bills capable of beating 7.5 wins set by oddsmakers, after a trio of seven win seasons?
Also in the AFC East, the Jets have to decide on Kellen Clemens, who has never really impressed or draft pick Mark Sanchez to beat a spot of seven wins.
Tennessee has total of nine W’s set on them. Can Kerry Collins continue to be a winner and if not, is Vince Young ready to resume career and become whom the Titans originally believed they had.
Matt Hasselbeck is the starter in Seattle and he’s become increasingly more injury-prone with advancing age. Will new coach Jim Mora have quick hook if Hasselbeck flounders and go with more athletic Seneca Wallace as Seahawks look to reclaim NFC West?
Shaun Hill has 7-3 record as San Francisco starter the last two years, which he earned in part because he had a better feel for Mike Martz offense. That offense has been scrapped with his departure. Hill is tough, with strong pocket presence and a good decision-maker. Word out of the Bay Area is he has teammates respect, but the 2005 top selection Alex Smith is hell-bent on proving he’s not a bust. Smith took a huge pay cut to stay with Niners (obviously nobody called) and believes his mended wing and more traditional offense is better suited to have him be leader of 49ers and pass seven win total placed on them.
With this much acrimony floating around this many different NFL teams, it is hard to make a case any of the teams are worthy of an Over play before the season starts.
NFL: Early Games (1:00 PM ET, CBS & FOX)2008-09-12The NFL’s early afternoon slate on Sunday boasts eight games, highlighted by the Colts visiting Minnesota in a battle of pre-season Super Bowl contenders that each lost in Week 1. The loser will be facing a difficult 0-2 hole. Here is a quick look at a few of the games on the early slate. Be sure to stay tuned to the Live Odds, Betting Trends, and Team Statistics pages for all the info you need to enjoy a big NFL betting day.
(195) INDIANAPOLIS at (196) MINNESOTA
The Colts have already seen more of the NFC North Division than they can stand, having lost their season opener to Chicago last Sunday night. The defeat spoiled the regular season opening of Lucas Oil Stadium, but it was no mistake. Indy was flat and thoroughly outplayed from wire-to-wire. Now, they’ll have to take down one of the top NFC contenders, Minnesota, on the road. HC Tony Dungy’s team is on a run of 4-1 SU & ATS on the road vs. NFC teams, and 8-2 ATS in non-conference overall. The Vikings will be on a short week of rest after playing Monday night in Green Bay. Historically, they’ve been a strong home underdog, going 20-10 in that role since ’92, but they’re just 2-4 ATS in their last six. Six of the Vikings’ L7 home games have gone OVER the total.
(201) CHICAGO at (202) CAROLINA
Chicago and Carolina have elevated their hopes for 2008 after turning back two of the AFC’s top teams on the road last weekend. Unfortunately, for one of the teams, the positive momentum will end this week as they square off in Carolina. The host Panthers, coming off the last second win at San Diego, are favored, but that might not work to their benefit, as they’ve struggled both at home and as chalk. In fact, coming into this one, Carolina is just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in its L10 games at home, and 6-9 ATS in its L15 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Bears advanced to 13-9 ATS as road dogs in the Lovie Smith era with the upset of Indy Sunday night. In this head-to-head series, the underdog has taken the L3 games, both SU & ATS, most recently in the ’05 playoffs.
(203) NY GIANTS at (204) ST LOUIS
The Giants will look to make it two in a row in 2008, and six in a row overall when they travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams. The defending champs opened the campaign with a rather pedestrian 16-7 win over Washington last Thursday. The G-Men might actually find themselves more at home in the Edward Jones Dome of St. Louis however, as HC Tom Coughlin’s team has won eight straight on the road, both SU & ATS. Overall, his teams are 22-11 ATS away from home. The Rams meanwhile, have had their problems at home, going 8-16 ATS over the last three seasons, including 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in ’07 as a home dog. They are also 7-19 ATS in their L26 games vs. NFC East foes. At least for the Rams’ sake, the home team has won the L3 games of the head-to-head series.
(205) BUFFALO at (206) JACKSONVILLE
Despite a convincing 34-10 win at home over Seattle this past week, Buffalo apparently hasn’t caught the eye of oddsmakers yet, as the Bills opened as a 6-point underdog in their week 2 contest at Jacksonville. While the Bills were methodical in turning back Seattle, the Jaguars were far from themselves in their 17-10 loss at Tennessee. In fact, the vaunted Jaguars running game managed just 33 yards in 17 attempts. They were also sacked seven times. HC Jack Del Rio’s team will be looking to extend a 12-5 ATS run as hosts in their ’08 home opener. The Bills haven’t won a road opener since 2003, ironically, at Jacksonville. The home team has won the last three games of this series, both SU & ATS, including in ’07, when the host Jaguars won handily, 36-14.
NFL Week 15 12/13-12/17 20072007-12-10With just three weeks left in the regular season, the week 15 NFL slate offers up a number of games with playoff implications. Nearly every one of the 16 contests has some bearing on the postseason races so it should be an exciting weekend. It all gets started on Thursday with the continuing NFL Network coverage, this time featuring Denver and Houston. The game has a “mentor meets protégé’ feel to it as Houston head coach Gary Kubiak takes on longtime former boss Mike Shanahan. For the teams, at 6 wins and 7 losses each, the game is a must-win in terms of AFC playoff hopes. If 2007 trends are any indication, its advantage Houston, as the Texans are 4 & 2 straight up and ATS at home, while Denver has covered the spread in just one of six road games. This weekend also offers up the first Saturday night game of the season, with Cincinnati taking on San Francisco. They’ll be no talk of playoffs where this game is concerned, but there is a pointspread and that makes every NFL game worth the time in front of the TV! The Bengals are a heavy road favorite and home field has been anything but advantageous for the 49ers, with a 1 & 5 record. On Sunday, the betting board features 13 NFL games, none bigger than that between AFC wildcard hopefuls Cleveland and Buffalo. The Browns are holding the final spot at 8 & 5, and Buffalo is just a game back. Cleveland is 11 & 3 ATS as a favorite under HC Romeo Crennel and scoring 31 Points Per Game at home in going 5& 1 straight up and ATS. Elsewhere Sunday, New England continues its quest for perfection when it hosts the Jets as an unprecedented 25-1/2 point favorite! The Patriots are 35 & 15 ATS in divisional games under Bill Belichick, but the Jets won in a big upset in Foxboro a year ago so maybe it won’t be as easy as it looks! Speaking of easy, have you been utilizing the Betting Trends, Team Statistics, and Instant Action pages provided by Sportsbook.com? They make wagering on NFL football a breeze. Try them out for this week’s games and get in on the great games lines, totals, and props for all 16 games, including the Sunday night feature between Washington and New York, and the Monday night affair between Chicago and Minnesota.